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Mark Webster-Smith v David O'Neill (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 15-1,9-15,15-10,11-15,15-13.

Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,909, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,648, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing 16% better than David O'Neill.

Mark Webster-Smith won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played 13% better than David O'Neill in this match.

As Mark Webster-Smith has played below his allowed range at 1,871, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Webster-Smith would normally have been playing at level 1,899 (based on typical behaviour), David O'Neill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to -0.8% and David O'Neill changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes -0.6% and for David O'Neill becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith is -0.4% and for David O'Neill is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 85%, David O'Neill: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 84%, David O'Neill: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,898, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for David O'Neill: 1,656, level confidence: 84%.