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David Freer v Joshua Green (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Joshua Green. Result: 13-15,15-14,15-12,14-15,13-15.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,364, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Green: 1,629, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Joshua Green to win as he is currently playing 19% better than David Freer.

Joshua Green won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Green played 8% better than David Freer in this match.

As Joshua Green has played below his allowed range at 1,531, his level reduction is 4.1% before damping. On the assumption that Joshua Green would normally have been playing at level 1,613 (based on typical behaviour), David Freer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Green changes to -3.7% and David Freer changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Green becomes -2.8% and for David Freer becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Joshua Green is -2.1% and for David Freer is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Green: 86%, David Freer: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Green: 82%, David Freer: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,395, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Joshua Green: 1,594, level confidence: 82%.