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Ben Hutton v Matthew Marshall (Sun 11 Nov 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 1-11,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Ben Hutton: 10,567, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 10,279, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Ben Hutton to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Matthew Marshall.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 136% better than Ben Hutton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 16,001 and Ben Hutton at a level of 6,788. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +53% and Ben Hutton changes to -55%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +11.9% and for Ben Hutton becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Midlands Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is +10.7% and for Ben Hutton is -10.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matthew Marshall is limited to +7.9% and Ben Hutton is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 88%, Ben Hutton: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 57%, Ben Hutton: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Hutton: 10,049, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 11,078, level confidence: 57%.