Todd Harrity v Nathan Lake (Fri 09 Nov 2018)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-13,11-7,11-3,5-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
32,429, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
33,506, level confidence: 64%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Todd Harrity.
Todd Harrity won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
12% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
34,833 and Nathan Lake at a level of
31,194. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +6.1% and Nathan Lake changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +1.8% and for Nathan Lake becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kolkata International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 87%, Nathan Lake: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 81%, Nathan Lake: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
33,001, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
32,924, level confidence: 74%.