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Chris Redman v David Wallond (Wed 07 Nov 2018)

Match won by Chris Redman. Result: 12-15,17-15,15-7,7-15,15-13.

Starting level for Chris Redman: 2,588, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Wallond: 3,116, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Chris Redman.

Chris Redman won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Redman played 8% better than David Wallond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Redman actually played at a level of 2,950 and David Wallond at a level of 2,734. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Redman changes to +12% and David Wallond changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Redman becomes +5.2% and for David Wallond becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Redman is +3.9% and for David Wallond is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Redman: 89%, David Wallond: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Redman: 79%, David Wallond: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Redman: 2,686, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,998, level confidence: 77%.