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Rob Ready v Derek Wright (Sat 10 Nov 2018)

Match won by Rob Ready. Result: 15-11,8-15,15-7,15-6.

Starting level for Rob Ready: 702, level confidence: 23%.
Starting level for Derek Wright: 647, level confidence: 39%.
Rob Ready to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Derek Wright.

Rob Ready won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Ready played 29% better than Derek Wright in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Ready actually played at a level of 764 and Derek Wright at a level of 594. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Ready changes to +8.5% and Derek Wright changes to -4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Ready becomes +5.7% and for Derek Wright becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Rob Ready is +4.3% and for Derek Wright is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Ready: 48%, Derek Wright: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Ready: 44%, Derek Wright: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Ready: 731, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Derek Wright: 627, level confidence: 57%.