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Peter Lonsdale v Nick Hiley (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Nick Hiley. Result: 11-8,2-11,9-11,11-8,10-12.

Starting level for Peter Lonsdale: 4,333, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,044, level confidence: 57%.
Peter Lonsdale to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Nick Hiley.

Nick Hiley won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Hiley played 12% better than Peter Lonsdale in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Hiley actually played at a level of 4,422 and Peter Lonsdale at a level of 3,963. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Hiley changes to +9% and Peter Lonsdale changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Hiley becomes +3.7% and for Peter Lonsdale becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Durham & Cleveland Mens Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nick Hiley is +2.8% and for Peter Lonsdale is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Hiley: 75%, Peter Lonsdale: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Hiley: 69%, Peter Lonsdale: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Lonsdale: 4,229, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,149, level confidence: 69%.