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David Wallond v Parminder Kalsi (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 15-8,15-9,15-5.

Starting level for David Wallond: 3,031, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for Parminder Kalsi: 2,118, level confidence: 65%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Parminder Kalsi.

David Wallond won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 105% better than Parminder Kalsi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of 3,624 and Parminder Kalsi at a level of 1,772. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +12% and Parminder Kalsi changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +4.8% and for Parminder Kalsi becomes -7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +3.6% and for Parminder Kalsi is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 95%, Parminder Kalsi: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 79%, Parminder Kalsi: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Wallond: 3,137, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Parminder Kalsi: 2,014, level confidence: 68%.