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Shaun Mizen v Steve Cruden (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Steve Cruden. Result: 15-10,3-15,12-15,7-15.

Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,447, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Steve Cruden: 2,694, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Steve Cruden to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Shaun Mizen.

Steve Cruden won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 49% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Cruden played 33% better than Shaun Mizen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Cruden actually played at a level of 2,959 and Shaun Mizen at a level of 2,228. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Cruden changes to +7.5% and Shaun Mizen changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Cruden becomes +3.6% and for Shaun Mizen becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Steve Cruden is +2.7% and for Shaun Mizen is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Cruden: 89%, Shaun Mizen: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Cruden: 81%, Shaun Mizen: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,366, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Steve Cruden: 2,763, level confidence: 81%.