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Steve Baker v Lyndon Cheetham (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 7-11,6-11.

Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,438, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 1,828, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Lyndon Cheetham.

Lyndon Cheetham won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 69% better than Steve Baker in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Cheetham actually played at a level of 2,746 and Steve Baker at a level of 1,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 42% and 42% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to +25% and Steve Baker changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +10.5% and for Steve Baker becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Douglas Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Baker is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 85%, Steve Baker: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 56%, Steve Baker: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Baker: 2,318, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,008, level confidence: 56%.