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Kyle Finch v Nathan Lake (Wed 14 Nov 2018)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 10-12,3-11,0-11.

Starting level for Kyle Finch: 16,305, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 32,745, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Kyle Finch.

Nathan Lake won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 162% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 162% better than Kyle Finch in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Lake actually played at a level of 37,368 and Kyle Finch at a level of 14,288. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.8% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to +8% and Kyle Finch changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes +2.1% and for Kyle Finch becomes -2.8%.

Given Nathan Lake's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change.

Given Kyle Finch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nathan Lake is +1% and for Kyle Finch is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 85%, Kyle Finch: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 75%, Kyle Finch: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kyle Finch: 16,026, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 33,028, level confidence: 75%.