Steven Morley v Lyndon Cheetham (Thu 15 Nov 2018)
Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 11-5,7-11,3-11,10-11.
Starting level for
Steven Morley:
1,867, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lyndon Cheetham:
2,086, level confidence: 65%.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Steven Morley.
Lyndon Cheetham won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played
24% better than Steven Morley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Cheetham actually played at a level of
2,199 and Steven Morley at a level of
1,771. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to +5.1% and Steven Morley changes to -4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +3.1% and for Steven Morley becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Douglas Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 81%, Steven Morley: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 77%, Steven Morley: 86%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Steven Morley:
1,827, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham:
2,147, level confidence: 77%.