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Magnus Lamprecht v David Freer (Thu 15 Nov 2018)

Match won by Magnus Lamprecht. Result: 11-9,11-0.

Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,287, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,334, level confidence: 68%.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Magnus Lamprecht.

Magnus Lamprecht won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 144% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Magnus Lamprecht played 144% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Magnus Lamprecht actually played at a level of 2,049 and David Freer at a level of 838. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 59% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht changes to +41% and David Freer changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht becomes +18.2% and for David Freer becomes -18%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Douglas Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Magnus Lamprecht is limited to +10% and David Freer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Magnus Lamprecht: 82%, David Freer: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Magnus Lamprecht: 51%, David Freer: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,414, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,269, level confidence: 52%.