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David Freer v Robert Colquitt (Thu 15 Nov 2018)

Match won by Robert Colquitt. Result: 9-11,9-11.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,405, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Robert Colquitt: 1,411, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Robert Colquitt to win as he is currently playing 0% better than David Freer.

Robert Colquitt won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Colquitt played 33% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robert Colquitt actually played at a level of 1,624 and David Freer at a level of 1,221. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 11.1% and 11.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Colquitt changes to +8.8% and David Freer changes to -11.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Colquitt becomes +5.1% and for David Freer becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Douglas Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Freer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Colquitt: 88%, David Freer: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Colquitt: 76%, David Freer: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,336, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Robert Colquitt: 1,481, level confidence: 76%.