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Charlie Hunt v Paul Nieduszynski (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Charlie Hunt. Result: 9-15,15-17,15-6,15-10,15-13.

Starting level for Charlie Hunt: 1,922, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,156, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Charlie Hunt.

Charlie Hunt won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Hunt played 11% better than Paul Nieduszynski in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Hunt actually played at a level of 2,143 and Paul Nieduszynski at a level of 1,934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Hunt changes to +10.8% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Hunt becomes +5.3% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Charlie Hunt is +4% and for Paul Nieduszynski is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Hunt: 83%, Paul Nieduszynski: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Hunt: 75%, Paul Nieduszynski: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Hunt: 1,995, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,110, level confidence: 76%.