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James Mace v Mike Calvert (Sat 17 Nov 2018)

Match won by James Mace. Result: 15-10,15-5,15-11.

Starting level for James Mace: 1,511, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Calvert: 900, level confidence: 50%.
James Mace to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Mike Calvert.

James Mace won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Mace played 73% better than Mike Calvert in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Mace actually played at a level of 1,534 and Mike Calvert at a level of 886. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Mace changes to +0.7% and Mike Calvert changes to -1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Mace becomes +0.6% and for Mike Calvert becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for James Mace is +0.5% and for Mike Calvert is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Mace: 89%, Mike Calvert: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Mace: 88%, Mike Calvert: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Mace: 1,516, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Mike Calvert: 891, level confidence: 70%.