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Joshua Masters v Eain Yow Ng (Sun 11 Nov 2018)

Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-8,4-11,11-8.

Starting level for Joshua Masters: 34,666, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 32,930, level confidence: 67%.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Joshua Masters won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played 6% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Masters actually played at a level of 34,857 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 32,749. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to +0.5% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes +0.2% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf No1' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 76%, Eain Yow Ng: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 76%, Eain Yow Ng: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Masters: 34,739, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 32,965, level confidence: 81%.