SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Greg Lobban v Richie Fallows (Sun 11 Nov 2018)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-9,9-11,13-11,11-5.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,559, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 32,570, level confidence: 54%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Richie Fallows.

Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 24% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 39,476 and Richie Fallows at a level of 31,814. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +1.5% and Richie Fallows changes to -2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +0.6% and for Richie Fallows becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qsf No1' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 88%, Richie Fallows: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 86%, Richie Fallows: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,690, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 32,492, level confidence: 72%.