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Andy Hall v David Wallond (Mon 19 Nov 2018)

Match won by Andy Hall. Result: 15-13,15-13,15-11.

Starting level for Andy Hall: 2,960, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Wallond: 3,139, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Andy Hall.

Andy Hall won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Hall played 33% better than David Wallond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Hall actually played at a level of 3,511 and David Wallond at a level of 2,647. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Hall changes to +17% and David Wallond changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Hall becomes +6.4% and for David Wallond becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Andy Hall is +4.8% and for David Wallond is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Hall: 91%, David Wallond: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Hall: 77%, David Wallond: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Hall: 3,098, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,985, level confidence: 74%.