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Nicolas Mueller v Daryl Selby (Thu 01 Nov 2018)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 12-14,15-13,11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 36,889, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 39,860, level confidence: 69%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Nicolas Mueller.

Nicolas Mueller won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 25% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of 42,908 and Daryl Selby at a level of 34,268. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +15% and Daryl Selby changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +3.4% and for Daryl Selby becomes -3.4%.

Given Nicolas Mueller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 68% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller is +1.5% and for Daryl Selby is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 84%, Daryl Selby: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 72%, Daryl Selby: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,552, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 39,367, level confidence: 71%.