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Peter Richardson v Cliff Enslin (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 15-8,15-10,16-14.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,468, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Cliff Enslin: 1,471, level confidence: 63%.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Cliff Enslin.

Peter Richardson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played 47% better than Cliff Enslin in this match.

In this case, Peter Richardson played at level 2,227 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Richardson would normally have been playing at level 2,287 (based on typical behaviour), Cliff Enslin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to 0% and Cliff Enslin changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes 0% and for Cliff Enslin becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is 0% and for Cliff Enslin is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 81%, Cliff Enslin: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 76%, Cliff Enslin: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,464, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Cliff Enslin: 1,488, level confidence: 74%.