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Malcolm Levy v Patrick Fitzpatrick (Mon 19 Nov 2018)

Match won by Malcolm Levy. Result: 10-11,7-11,11-8,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Malcolm Levy: 3,926, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,930, level confidence: 55%.
Patrick Fitzpatrick to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Malcolm Levy.

Malcolm Levy won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm Levy played 15% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Malcolm Levy actually played at a level of 4,220 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of 3,657. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy changes to +5.8% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy becomes +2.7% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Malcolm Levy is +2.1% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm Levy: 84%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm Levy: 78%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Malcolm Levy: 4,001, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,831, level confidence: 69%.