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Dave Evans v Nathan Quilliam (Mon 19 Nov 2018)

Match won by Nathan Quilliam. Result: 7-11,6-11,11-10,0-11.

Starting level for Dave Evans: 1,259, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,774, level confidence: 66%.
Nathan Quilliam to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Dave Evans.

Nathan Quilliam won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Quilliam played 43% better than Dave Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Quilliam actually played at a level of 1,786 and Dave Evans at a level of 1,250. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam changes to 0% and Dave Evans changes to -0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam becomes +0.1% and for Dave Evans becomes -0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam is 0% and for Dave Evans is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Quilliam: 81%, Dave Evans: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Quilliam: 81%, Dave Evans: 31%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Evans: 1,252, level confidence: 31%.
Final level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,772, level confidence: 81%.