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Jason Varrie v Matthew Marshall (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-7,10-12,11-8,7-11,10-12.

Starting level for Jason Varrie: 7,745, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 11,042, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Jason Varrie.

Matthew Marshall won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 8% better than Jason Varrie in this match.

As Matthew Marshall has played below his allowed range at 9,197, his level reduction is 9.9% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 10,619 (based on typical behaviour), Jason Varrie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to -8.3% and Jason Varrie changes to +9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes -2.7% and for Jason Varrie becomes +3.3%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jason Varrie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is -1.7% and for Jason Varrie is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 85%, Jason Varrie: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 74%, Jason Varrie: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jason Varrie: 7,908, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 10,843, level confidence: 74%.