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Paul Nieduszynski v Charlie Laing (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Paul Nieduszynski. Result: 15-4,15-9,15-11.

Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,110, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Charlie Laing: 1,967, level confidence: 63%.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Charlie Laing.

Paul Nieduszynski won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Nieduszynski played 88% better than Charlie Laing in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Nieduszynski actually played at a level of 2,790 and Charlie Laing at a level of 1,488. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski changes to +26% and Charlie Laing changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski becomes +10.5% and for Charlie Laing becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski is +7.9% and for Charlie Laing is -8.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Charlie Laing is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Nieduszynski: 86%, Charlie Laing: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Nieduszynski: 65%, Charlie Laing: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,273, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Charlie Laing: 1,882, level confidence: 60%.