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Lyndon Cheetham v Mark Webster-Smith (Thu 22 Nov 2018)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 15-7,15-6,13-15,13-15,15-11.

Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,284, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,899, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Mark Webster-Smith.

Lyndon Cheetham won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 15% better than Mark Webster-Smith in this match.

As Lyndon Cheetham has played below his allowed range at 2,210, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Lyndon Cheetham would normally have been playing at level 2,260 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Webster-Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to -0.8% and Mark Webster-Smith changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -0.6% and for Mark Webster-Smith becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham is -0.4% and for Mark Webster-Smith is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 86%, Mark Webster-Smith: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 84%, Mark Webster-Smith: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,271, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,911, level confidence: 87%.