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Matthew Marshall v Harry Wyld (Wed 14 Nov 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 10,948, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Wyld: 5,548, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Harry Wyld.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 43% better than Harry Wyld in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matthew Marshall was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,233 and 10,948 without affecting his level.

As Matthew Marshall has played below his allowed range at 8,090, his level reduction is 1.8% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 9,645 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Wyld played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to -1.2% and Harry Wyld changes to +7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes -0.6% and for Harry Wyld becomes +2.9%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Wyld's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is -0.4% and for Harry Wyld is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 88%, Harry Wyld: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 75%, Harry Wyld: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 10,935, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Harry Wyld: 5,678, level confidence: 73%.