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Joshua Green v Nathan Quilliam (Thu 22 Nov 2018)

Match won by Nathan Quilliam. Result: 9-15,11-15,10-15.

Starting level for Joshua Green: 1,594, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,769, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Nathan Quilliam to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Joshua Green.

Nathan Quilliam won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Quilliam played 52% better than Joshua Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Quilliam actually played at a level of 2,068 and Joshua Green at a level of 1,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam changes to +15% and Joshua Green changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam becomes +7.2% and for Joshua Green becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam is +5.4% and for Joshua Green is -5.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joshua Green is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Quilliam: 89%, Joshua Green: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Quilliam: 76%, Joshua Green: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Green: 1,548, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,861, level confidence: 76%.