Sean Massie v Rick Scannell (Sun 25 Nov 2018)
Match won by Rick Scannell. Result: 1-3.
Starting level for
Sean Massie:
299, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Rick Scannell:
251, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Sean Massie to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Rick Scannell.
Rick Scannell won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rick Scannell actually played at a level of
306 and Sean Massie at a level of
245. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 16%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rick Scannell changes to +14% and Sean Massie changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rick Scannell becomes +8.4% and for Sean Massie becomes -9.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Rick Scannell is +4.2% and for Sean Massie is -4.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rick Scannell: 86%, Sean Massie: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rick Scannell: 71%, Sean Massie: 67%.
Final level for Sean Massie:
286, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Rick Scannell:
262, level confidence: 71%.