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Rick Scannell v Ray Owens (Sun 25 Nov 2018)

Match won by Rick Scannell. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Rick Scannell: 262, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ray Owens: 260, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Rick Scannell to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Ray Owens.

Rick Scannell won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rick Scannell actually played at a level of 345 and Ray Owens at a level of 197. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 17%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rick Scannell changes to +17% and Ray Owens changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rick Scannell becomes +9.8% and for Ray Owens becomes -8.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Rick Scannell is +4.9% and for Ray Owens is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rick Scannell: 84%, Ray Owens: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rick Scannell: 64%, Ray Owens: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rick Scannell: 274, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Ray Owens: 249, level confidence: 67%.