Ray Owens v Jeremy Wright (Sun 25 Nov 2018)
Match won by Ray Owens. Result: 3-1.
Starting level for
Ray Owens:
252, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Jeremy Wright:
290, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Jeremy Wright to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Ray Owens.
Ray Owens won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ray Owens actually played at a level of
302 and Jeremy Wright at a level of
242. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 15%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ray Owens changes to +15% and Jeremy Wright changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ray Owens becomes +8.6% and for Jeremy Wright becomes -7.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Ray Owens is +4.3% and for Jeremy Wright is -3.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ray Owens: 82%, Jeremy Wright: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ray Owens: 68%, Jeremy Wright: 74%.
Final level for Ray Owens:
263, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Jeremy Wright:
280, level confidence: 74%.