Nick Dear v James Mortimer (Sun 25 Nov 2018)
Match won by James Mortimer. Result: 0-3.
Starting level for
Nick Dear:
124, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
James Mortimer:
216, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Nick Dear.
James Mortimer won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Mortimer actually played at a level of
216 and Nick Dear at a level of
124. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 0%.
As this result doesn't have points scores, the difference in levels is significant and the match was a straight games win, leave the levels unchanged. Provide points scores if you can!
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Mortimer: 89%, Nick Dear: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Mortimer: 89%, Nick Dear: 79%.
Final level for Nick Dear:
124, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for James Mortimer:
216, level confidence: 89%.