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Sam Osborne v Paul Nieduszynski (Sun 25 Nov 2018)

Match won by Paul Nieduszynski. Result: 0-3.

Starting level for Sam Osborne: 1,593, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,253, level confidence: 64%.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Sam Osborne.

Paul Nieduszynski won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Nieduszynski actually played at a level of 2,506 and Sam Osborne at a level of 1,432. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 9.4% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 5.2%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski changes to +5.2% and Sam Osborne changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski becomes +3% and for Sam Osborne becomes -3%.

Given Paul Nieduszynski's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski is +1.4% and for Sam Osborne is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Nieduszynski: 80%, Sam Osborne: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Nieduszynski: 72%, Sam Osborne: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Osborne: 1,571, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,288, level confidence: 72%.