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Tom Tuite-Dalton v Paul Nieduszynski (Sun 25 Nov 2018)

Match won by Paul Nieduszynski. Result: 2-2.

Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,667, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,308, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton.

Paul Nieduszynski won 50% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 0%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Paul Nieduszynski has played below his allowed range at 1,881, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Nieduszynski would normally have been playing at level 2,232 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Tuite-Dalton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.8% and 13% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 13%. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 8% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski changes to -8% and Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -4% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes +4.7%.

Given Paul Nieduszynski's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Paul Nieduszynski is -1.9% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Nieduszynski: 85%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Nieduszynski: 72%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,708, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,269, level confidence: 72%.