SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Lucas Serme v Nathan Lake (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 7-11,11-3,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 35,642, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 33,013, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Nathan Lake.

Lucas Serme won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 33% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 39,506 and Nathan Lake at a level of 29,784. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +10.4% and Nathan Lake changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +2.6% and for Nathan Lake becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 76%, Nathan Lake: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 68%, Nathan Lake: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 36,459, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 32,434, level confidence: 77%.