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Declan James v Joel Makin (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 14-16,11-7,8-11,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Declan James: 41,155, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 49,370, level confidence: 60%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Declan James.

Declan James won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 11% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 47,521 and Joel Makin at a level of 42,756. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +14% and Joel Makin changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +3.1% and for Joel Makin becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 67%, Joel Makin: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 58%, Joel Makin: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 42,438, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 48,322, level confidence: 67%.