Nicolas Mueller v Omar Mosaad (Wed 21 Nov 2018)
Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 11-3,12-10,8-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Nicolas Mueller:
37,393, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Omar Mosaad:
37,074, level confidence: 65%.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Omar Mosaad.
Nicolas Mueller won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played
33% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of
42,980 and Omar Mosaad at a level of
32,255. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +15% and Omar Mosaad changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +3.3% and for Omar Mosaad becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 79%, Omar Mosaad: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 69%, Omar Mosaad: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller:
38,536, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad:
36,082, level confidence: 70%.