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Zahed Mohamed v Greg Lobban (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 7-11,11-9,3-11,13-11,11-7.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 39,802, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 39,831, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Zahed Mohamed won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 5% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 40,889 and Greg Lobban at a level of 38,772. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +2.7% and Greg Lobban changes to -2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +1% and for Greg Lobban becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 92%, Greg Lobban: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 89%, Greg Lobban: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 40,203, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 39,520, level confidence: 88%.