Karim Abdel Gawad v Tsz Fung Yip (Thu 22 Nov 2018)
Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Karim Abdel Gawad:
48,283, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
40,832, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Tsz Fung Yip.
Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played
43% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of
53,147 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of
37,095. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +8.1% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -9.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +2% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 94%, Tsz Fung Yip: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 85%, Tsz Fung Yip: 80%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad:
49,099, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
40,088, level confidence: 80%.