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Mason McLarney v Allister Crossley (Mon 26 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mason McLarney. Result: 11-5,11-1,11-9.

Starting level for Mason McLarney: 2,549, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,827, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mason McLarney to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Allister Crossley.

Mason McLarney won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mason McLarney played 120% better than Allister Crossley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mason McLarney actually played at a level of 3,201 and Allister Crossley at a level of 1,455. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mason McLarney changes to +21% and Allister Crossley changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mason McLarney becomes +8.2% and for Allister Crossley becomes -7.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mason McLarney is +6.2% and for Allister Crossley is -5.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Allister Crossley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mason McLarney: 82%, Allister Crossley: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mason McLarney: 65%, Allister Crossley: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mason McLarney: 2,702, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,737, level confidence: 71%.