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James Erte v Peter Richardson (Tue 27 Nov 2018)

Match won by James Erte. Result: 15-8,15-11,3-15,15-9.

Starting level for James Erte: 2,052, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,477, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than James Erte.

James Erte won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Erte played 21% better than Peter Richardson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Erte actually played at a level of 2,476 and Peter Richardson at a level of 2,053. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Erte changes to +19% and Peter Richardson changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Erte becomes +7.9% and for Peter Richardson becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for James Erte is +6% and for Peter Richardson is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Erte: 84%, Peter Richardson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Erte: 70%, Peter Richardson: 71%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Erte: 2,171, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,411, level confidence: 71%.