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Shaun Mizen v Ben Griffin (Tue 27 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ben Griffin. Result: 11-15,5-15,12-15.

Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,372, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Ben Griffin: 3,353, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Ben Griffin to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Shaun Mizen.

Ben Griffin won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Griffin played 61% better than Shaun Mizen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Griffin actually played at a level of 3,575 and Shaun Mizen at a level of 2,225. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Griffin changes to +5.4% and Shaun Mizen changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Griffin becomes +2.7% and for Shaun Mizen becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Ben Griffin is +2% and for Shaun Mizen is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Griffin: 84%, Shaun Mizen: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Griffin: 79%, Shaun Mizen: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,315, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ben Griffin: 3,417, level confidence: 79%.