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John Hughes v David Crane (Wed 28 Nov 2018)

Match won by David Crane. Result: 7-15,4-15,18-16,15-2,7-15.

Starting level for John Hughes: 1,876, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Crane: 2,218, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
David Crane to win as he is currently playing 18% better than John Hughes.

David Crane won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Crane played 13% better than John Hughes in this match.

As David Crane has played below his allowed range at 2,152, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that David Crane would normally have been playing at level 2,200 (based on typical behaviour), John Hughes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Crane changes to -1% and John Hughes changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Crane becomes -0.8% and for John Hughes becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Crane is -0.6% and for John Hughes is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Crane: 90%, John Hughes: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Crane: 88%, John Hughes: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Hughes: 1,890, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for David Crane: 2,202, level confidence: 88%.