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Michael Shoory v Paul Nieduszynski (Tue 27 Nov 2018)

Match won by Michael Shoory. Result: 15-5,15-3,15-5.

Starting level for Michael Shoory: 5,366, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,254, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Michael Shoory to win as he is currently playing 138% better than Paul Nieduszynski.

Michael Shoory won all of the games and 78% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 246% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Shoory played 246% better than Paul Nieduszynski in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Shoory actually played at a level of 6,470 and Paul Nieduszynski at a level of 1,869. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Shoory changes to +13% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Shoory becomes +4.5% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -1.2%.

Given Michael Shoory's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Michael Shoory is +3.3% and for Paul Nieduszynski is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Shoory: 32%, Paul Nieduszynski: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Shoory: 26%, Paul Nieduszynski: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Shoory: 5,534, level confidence: 26%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,231, level confidence: 70%.