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Matthew Marshall v Marc James (Tue 27 Nov 2018)

Match won by Marc James. Result: 11-4,8-11,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 10,646, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Marc James: 7,509, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Marc James.

Marc James won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marc James played 24% better than Matthew Marshall in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marc James actually played at a level of 9,974 and Matthew Marshall at a level of 8,015. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marc James changes to +24% and Matthew Marshall changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marc James becomes +6.6% and for Matthew Marshall becomes -6.9%.

Given Marc James's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Marc James is +4.5% and for Matthew Marshall is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marc James: 87%, Matthew Marshall: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marc James: 65%, Matthew Marshall: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 10,200, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Marc James: 7,838, level confidence: 65%.