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Adam Hurst v Paul Nieduszynski (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Adam Hurst. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Adam Hurst: 1,789, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,246, level confidence: 69%.
Paul Nieduszynski to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Adam Hurst.

Adam Hurst won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Hurst actually played at a level of 2,102 and Paul Nieduszynski at a level of 1,911. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 14%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Hurst changes to +12% and Paul Nieduszynski changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Hurst becomes +5.9% and for Paul Nieduszynski becomes -6.2%.

Given Paul Nieduszynski's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Adam Hurst is +3% and for Paul Nieduszynski is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Hurst: 89%, Paul Nieduszynski: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Hurst: 76%, Paul Nieduszynski: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Hurst: 1,844, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Paul Nieduszynski: 2,186, level confidence: 71%.