SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Chris Cave v Mark Webster-Smith (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 13-15,15-13,10-15,13-15.

Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,878, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,911, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Chris Cave.

Mark Webster-Smith won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played 21% better than Chris Cave in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Webster-Smith actually played at a level of 2,086 and Chris Cave at a level of 1,720. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to +8.3% and Chris Cave changes to -9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes +4.4% and for Chris Cave becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith is +3.3% and for Chris Cave is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 92%, Chris Cave: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 84%, Chris Cave: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Cave: 1,812, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,970, level confidence: 84%.