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Nathan Quilliam v Douglas Jacobsson (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Nathan Quilliam. Result: 15-6,15-8,15-12.

Starting level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,861, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,409, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Nathan Quilliam to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Douglas Jacobsson.

Nathan Quilliam won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Quilliam played 73% better than Douglas Jacobsson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Quilliam actually played at a level of 2,130 and Douglas Jacobsson at a level of 1,231. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam changes to +12% and Douglas Jacobsson changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam becomes +6% and for Douglas Jacobsson becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nathan Quilliam is +4.5% and for Douglas Jacobsson is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Quilliam: 86%, Douglas Jacobsson: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Quilliam: 75%, Douglas Jacobsson: 77%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Quilliam: 1,941, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,375, level confidence: 77%.