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Rick Scannell v Alistair Robbie (Fri 30 Nov 2018)

Match won by Rick Scannell. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Rick Scannell: 270, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alistair Robbie: 185, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Rick Scannell to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Alistair Robbie.

Rick Scannell won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Rick Scannell has played below his allowed range at 237, his level reduction is 2.3% before damping. On the assumption that Rick Scannell would normally have been playing at level 258 (based on typical behaviour), Alistair Robbie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 4.7% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 3.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rick Scannell changes to -1.5% and Alistair Robbie changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rick Scannell becomes -1.5% and for Alistair Robbie becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Rick Scannell is -0.7% and for Alistair Robbie is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rick Scannell: 88%, Alistair Robbie: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rick Scannell: 82%, Alistair Robbie: 81%.

Final level for Rick Scannell: 268, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Alistair Robbie: 188, level confidence: 81%.