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Dafydd Lewis v Steve Gaylor (Thu 29 Nov 2018)

Match won by Dafydd Lewis. Result: 15-10,15-6,15-14.

Starting level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,879, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,374, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Dafydd Lewis to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Steve Gaylor.

Dafydd Lewis won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dafydd Lewis played 52% better than Steve Gaylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dafydd Lewis actually played at a level of 1,979 and Steve Gaylor at a level of 1,305. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis changes to +4.5% and Steve Gaylor changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis becomes +2.9% and for Steve Gaylor becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Dafydd Lewis is +2.2% and for Steve Gaylor is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dafydd Lewis: 83%, Steve Gaylor: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dafydd Lewis: 79%, Steve Gaylor: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dafydd Lewis: 1,918, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,341, level confidence: 85%.